PLANYC 2030

Several major cable networks and subscription-TV providers are readying systems that will let only paying subscribers watch cable shows on the Web, part of an effort to counter the growing amount of free TV shows available online.

Comcast Corp., Time Warner Cable Inc. and DirecTV Group Inc. plan trials of subscriber-only online services this summer, according to people familiar with the matter.

Comcast’s test, which it announced Wednesday, will cover 5,000 homes and feature programming from Time Warner Inc.’s TNT and TBS networks, including TNT’s “The Closer” and TBS’s “My Boys.”

Networks such as A&E and the History Channel, which areowned by a venture of Walt Disney Co., Hearst Inc. and General Electric Co.’s NBC Universal, along with networks owned by Scripps Networks Interactive Inc. and Cablevision Systems Corp.’s Rainbow Media are also slated to participate in Comcast’s test, according to executives. NBC Universal said it is also in talks to participate in Time Warner Cable’s test.

While limited, the new tests represent part of an industry-wide push to preserve and possibly expand the cable-TV business’s lucrative subscription model in a digital world. The move also come as media companies are struggling to make money from online video.

A large amount of TV content has already made its way online—particularly from broadcast networks that depend largely on ad revenue. In addition to putting shows on their own Web sites, NBC Universal and News Corp., owner of Fox Broadcasting (as well as The Wall Street Journal) formed Hulu, an ad-supported Web site that aggregates TV programming. Disney’s ABC recently signed on, and CBS Corp. has its own video site, TV.com.

Cable operators have chafed as cable networks have posted some of their programming online. The new systems would allow networks to put more programming online without enticing viewers to cancel cable-TV subscriptions.

“The vision is you can watch your favorite network’s programming on any screen,” said Time Warner Chief Executive Jeff Bewkes, one of the plan’s most ardent proponents, at a press conference Wednesday. He added that the plan is “not defensive.”

Mr. Bewkes said in interview he is in talks with other providers, including DirecTV, Dish Network Corp., Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc., and expects to announce more deals in “days or weeks.”

A DirecTV spokesman said it will launch a trial this summer. Terry Denson, Verizon’s vice president of content and programming, said the company is close to an agreement with Time Warner and other content providers about a similar test. Representatives of AT&T and Dish declined to comment.

There are still significant technical and business hurdles to launching such a system. Some cable-network executives say they believe that cable operators should pay extra for putting more programming online.

Both Time Warner and Comcast said Wednesday that the system they are pursuing will be interoperable with other companies’ systems to authenticate subscribers.

There’s also a question of whether some media companies will want to sequester their most popular content behind a subscription wall. “People are afraid to go first,” said Mr. Bewkes. “We aren’t.”

Home builders suffered another year of painful losses in 2008, and the most successful analysts covering the sector were those able to grin and bear it—or at least be bearish on it.

The top analyst in the sector, Kenneth Leon of Standard & Poor’s Corp., a division of McGraw-Hill Cos., employed what he calls the “cockroach theory” in making several prescient calls about builders facing rising leverage and cash-flow issues.

“If there is one, there is likely to be more,’’ says Mr. Leon, 54 years old, in explaining his theory. He says when a few builders had liquidity issues early last year, it meant other builders with weak balance sheets would likely face similar problems. One builder that drew his attention was Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. He rated the stock a sell in early September, capturing a decline of more than 70% through November, when he moved it back to hold.

Mr. Leon also captured big declines with timely sell ratings on builder Meritage Homes Corp. and on Sealy Corp, the bedding maker that was hurt by the deepening recession.

He predicts that the home-building industry and Michigan furniture manufacturer will recover by this year’s fourth quarter and that builders’ orders will begin to grow at that time. But he’s staying neutral on the industry because he says home prices will continue falling through 2010 as the supply of foreclosed homes for sale remains high.

“A sustainable recovery for the home builders requires a major reduction in housing inventory,’’ Mr. Leon says. His top picks are Pulte Homes Inc., Toll Brothers Inc. and MDC Holdings Inc., which he sees as well-capitalized builders.

No. 2 analyst Christopher Agnew, formerly of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, made some good calls on the real-estate-related niche of office-furniture makers by anticipating a big contraction in the financial-services sector and waning demand for new office space, hospital cabinets. Some of the furniture companies, which do a sizable amount of international sales, also were hurt by the declining value of the euro and the British pound, Mr. Agnew says.

Mr. Agnew, 38, had a sell rating on furniture supplier HNI Corp. through much of 2008, capturing declines that totaled more than 60%.

Mr. Agnew, who is now on the job hunt, says that based on historical trends, office-furniture makers will likely continue their move off their lows as the rate of year-over-year revenue declines starts to decelerate, even though the industry is unlikely to experience meaningful revenue growth until at least the end of 2010.

David Goldberg scored the No. 3 spot by navigating the volatility among home builders. For example, he put a sell on Meritage Homes in September, just before its stock fell 65% in about six weeks. Sensing the selling was too extreme, Mr. Goldberg switched to a buy rating in late October through early November and captured a bounce in the stock.

Mr. Goldberg, 31, an analyst in New York for UBS, part of Switzerland’s UBS AG, believes a recent rally in the home-building sector is premature. “We think the trough in the market is coming at end of the year,” he says.

His top picks are Ryland Group Inc. , which owns just enough finished house sites to feed demand, and Toll Brothers, which has ample cash reserves .

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. — Discount retailer TJX Cos. said today it has reached a settlement with multiple states related to a massive data theft that occurred at the parent company of retailers T.J. Maxx and Marshall’s a few years ago.

The Framingham, Mass.-based company said it will pay $2.5 million to create a data security fund for states as well as a settlement amount of $5.5 million and $1.75 million to cover expenses related to the states’ investigations. But TJX stressed that it “firmly believes” that it did not violate any consumer protection or data security laws.

“The decision to enter into this settlement reflects TJX’s desire to concentrate on its core business without distraction and to promote cyber security measures that will benefit all consumers,” the company stated.

TJX said the settlement’s costs are already accounted for in a 2007 reserve it created.

The breach, which was disclosed in January 2007, exposed tens of millions of payment card numbers to hackers. TJX has said that at least 45.7 million credit and debit cards were exposed to possible fraud in the computer systems breach that began in July 2005. The breach wasn’t detected until December 2006.

Under the settlement with a multi-state group of 41 Attorneys General, TJX must also certify that its computer system meets detailed data security requirements specified by the states and must encourage the development of new technologies to address weaknesses in the U.S. payment card system.

TJX runs 882 of its namesake stores, 811 Marshalls, 322 HomeGoods and 141 A.J. Wright stores in the U.S. It has 203 Winners, 75 HomeSense and 3 Stylesense stores in Canada and 242 T.K. Maxx and 8 HomeSense stores in Europe.

The company’s stock fell 23 cents to $30.55 in afternoon trading.