Europe Loan Growth Accelerates as Economy Recovers

Bloomberg / Business Week

 
 
Loans to households and companies in Europe grew at the fastest pace in 13 months in July after the economic recovery gathered steam.

Loans to the private sector rose 0.9 percent from a year earlier after growing an annual 0.5 percent in June, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt said today. That’s the strongest increase since June 2009. M3 money supply, which the ECB uses as a gauge of future inflation, increased an annual 0.2 percent in July, the same rate recorded in the previous month.

Strengthening global demand helped Europe’s economy expand 1 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in four years. Economic growth may slow as governments reduce spending to tackle bloated budget deficits and the global recovery shows signs of losing momentum. Orders for durable goods in the U.S. increased less than forecast in July, a sign one of the few remaining bright spots in the economy is cooling, while China’s industrial output rose the least in 11 months.

“It is encouraging that the annual growth rate of bank lending to the private sector is moving in the right direction,” said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group in Amsterdam. “But overall demand for bank credit remains subdued. This highlights the fragility of domestic demand in the euro zone, and is a reminder not to get too carried away by the recent resilience of the euro-zone dataflow.”

Confidence

European confidence in the economic outlook rose to the highest in more than two years in July and business sentiment in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unexpectedly increased to a three-year high in August, suggesting the recovery may not lose as much momentum as some economists forecast.

ECB council member Axel Weber said last week the bank is likely to raise its euro-region growth forecasts next month after the German economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace since records for a reunified country began in 1991. The ECB in June predicted euro-area growth of 1 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011.

Still, a report today showed Italian consumer confidence fell in August to the lowest in more than a year as government austerity measures made households more pessimistic about the their ability to save.

According to the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey published on July 28, euro-area banks “anticipate credit standards on loans to enterprises to tighten somewhat in the third quarter.”

In the three months through June, M3 rose 0.1 percent from the same period a year earlier, the ECB said. M3 is the broadest gauge of money supply and includes cash in circulation, some forms of savings and money-market holdings. The annual rate of M1 money-supply growth eased to 8.1 percent from 9.2 percent.

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UPS Raises Outlook, Despite Mixed Economy

Associated Press
 
UPS isn’t expecting U.S. consumers to significantly increase spending anytime soon. Instead, it’s counting on businesses to push the economy — and UPS’ domestic business — slowly forward with overdue purchases of computers and other electronics.

UPS on Thursday expressed confidence that the “slow pace” of economic recovery in the U.S. can be overcome by increased prices and strong international shipments. UPS raised its full-year outlook for the second time since January.

The results from the world’s largest shipping company confirm that U.S. consumers and businesses aren’t spending beyond the necessities — except when it comes to technology.

Consumers are gobbling up iPhones, iPads and other new gadgets that are shipped from Asia, Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn said in an interview with The Associated Press. Technology purchases are countering sluggish spending in other areas for businesses, too — especially those that put off upgrades or new computer purchases during the recession.

“Tech has really been leading from Asia, with China leading the charge,” Kuehn said. A growing portion of UPS’ business is international.

Consumers and business customers also want their goods more quickly, increasingly using next-day air service instead of cheaper truck delivery. That bodes well for UPS’ ability to fetch more money per package.

The Atlanta company said Thursday it expects adjusted earnings of $3.35 to $3.47 per share this year, up from a previous prediction of $3.05 to $3.30. Analysts’ currently expect $3.27.

Shares of UPS jumped 6.5 percent to $63.93 in midday trading.

UPS Inc. said Thursday that earnings for the second quarter nearly doubled to $845 million, or 84 cents per share, compared with 445 million, or 44 cents per share a year ago. Revenue rose 13 percent to $12.2 billion.

Thomson Reuters says analysts forecast 77 cents per share on $11.98 billion in revenue.

“UPS fired on all cylinders in the second quarter even in the face of a mixed global economic environment,” said CEO Scott Davis.

UPS’ international business continues to be the key growth area. Package volume jumped 24 percent, while revenue per package rose about 2 percent because customers used cheaper modes of shipping. International exports rose 15 percent in the quarter, led by shipments out of Asia, which were up more than 40 percent.

In the U.S., average daily package volume rose just 1 percent. But UPS took in 6 percent more revenue per package, mostly by charging higher prices and passing along fuel costs to customers.

Even as business improves, UPS isn’t eager to hire anytime soon. Instead, it’s looking for ways to take on more shipments without adding costs.

For the quarter that ended in May, UPS’ smaller rival FedEx earned $419 million, or $1.33 per share. It said last month that economists are being too pessimistic about the pace of global recovery.

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Economy Adds Jobs at Fastest Pace in Three Years

WASHINGTON (AP) – The nation added jobs at the fastest pace in three years last month as factories, stores, hospitals and the census all brought workers on board – the surest sign yet that the worst employment market in a generation has finally snapped back.

The unemployment rate stayed at 9.7 percent for the third month in a row, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists actually consider that a hopeful sign because it means more people are encouraged and starting to look for work.

“This recovery is for real,” said Chris Rupkey, economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

Overall, the economy added 162,000 jobs for the month. About a third of the gains came from the census, with much more to come: About 700,000 head-counters will be hired to tally the nation’s population this spring.

Economists took heart that even aside from the population count, the private sector added 123,000 jobs for the month, the most since May 2007.

Hiring is not expected to be robust enough anytime soon to significantly bring down the unemployment rate. Economists think unemployment will probably still be above 9 percent by the November midterm elections, making Democratic and Republican incumbents in Congress vulnerable, particularly in hard-hit states such as Michigan, Nevada and Rhode Island.

President Barack Obama seized on the positive numbers in the jobs report and took partial credit for them. But with 15 million people still out of work, he also acknowledged that the economy will be recuperating for a long time to come.

“We are beginning to turn the corner,” he told workers at a battery plant in Charlotte, N.C., that received government stimulus money. But he added: “We shouldn’t underestimate the difficulties we face.”

House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio said a jobless rate near 10 percent is “no cause for celebration.” The unemployment rate peaked at 10.1 percent in October, a 26-year high.

No one disputes that the job market is still bleak. Counting people who have given up looking for work and part-timers who would prefer to be working full-time, the so-called underemployment rate rose to 16.9 percent in March.

But Friday’s report from the Labor Department at least provides firm evidence that the job market is on the right track, even if it will be a long journey for the millions of Americans who want work but cannot yet find any.

“The economy is moving in the right direction, albeit at a torturously slow pace,” said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.

Economists do not expect the jobless rate to drop to something more normal – like 5.5 percent to 6 percent – until the middle of this decade.

In the meantime, economists are concerned that hiring now appears to be concentrated among large companies – a sign that small businesses, which typically lead job creation in the early stages of a recovery, are having difficulty getting financing from banks.

In March, the education industry led job creation, followed by health services and government. Those sectors, plus others like the hospitality industry, manufacturing and retail, will continue hiring as the recovery picks up, economists say.

For example, Sodexo Inc., a large food services company based in Maryland, plans to fill thousands of openings for cooks, servers, cashiers and other positions. Demand for food services is on the rise again at schools, hospitals and corporations.

“We’re really very optimistic that this is not a blip,” said Arie Ball, the company’s vice president for human resources.

Although construction companies added jobs last month, it was seen as a temporary snapback from February, when snowstorms along the East Coast idled many construction jobs. The real estate market is still fragile in much of the country.

Other pockets of weakness include financial services, publishing and state and local governments, which are grappling with budget crises from coast to coast.

In Fairfax, Va., Merrifield Garden Center is looking to hire 100 people – more than it added last spring.

“With the attitude of the economy swinging around, we will continue to add positions here,” said Peter Hogarth, the store’s manager.

More of the applicants this year are people who were laid off from higher-paying white-collar jobs, Hogarth said.

Nationwide, average hourly earnings fell by 2 cents in March to $22.47. Stagnant wages are a big reason people are still hesitant to spend money, a drag on the overall economy.

The number of people out of work six months or longer reached 6.5 million in March, a new high. The number of people forced to take part-time work in March rose by 263,000, to 9.1 million.

The worst recession since the 1930s has wiped out 8.2 million jobs, making the competition for any openings fierce. On average, there are five or six unemployed people competing for each opening, according to government data.

Elaine Murszewski of Aurora, Colo., who was laid off by a software company a year ago, has found only openings for lower-paying jobs. Taking one would end her unemployment benefits, roughly $11 an hour, and force her to continue digging into savings to get by.

“I can’t believe this,” she said.

Paula Hartland, on the other hand, snagged a job last month in communications at Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta after being laid off in January, and urged job-seekers to not give up hope.

“You kind of have to ignore all the negative news,” she said. “You have to put all your time and energy into networking into those companies where you want to work.”

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