Rental Rates Soar – Apartment Vacancies Decline

First appeared in Bloomberg
U.S. apartment vacancies dropped to a 10-year low in thefourth quarter, allowing for rent increases that are likely to continue thisyear, Reis Inc. (REIS) said. Metal Carportsalso mean higher rates.
The vacancy rate fell to 5.2 percent, the lowest since theend of 2001, the New York-based property research firm said in a report today.It was 5.6 percent in the previous three months and 6.6 percent a year earlier.The average monthly effective rent, or what tenants paid after landlordgiveaways, climbed 2.3 percent from a year earlier to $ 1,009, Reis said.
Rising foreclosures (HOMFREO) and stricter mortgage-lendingstandards have helped make rental housing the best-performing segment ofcommercial real estate for the past two years.  There was a rise in Solar Carportsavailability as well. The vacancy rate has fallen for seven straight quartersfrom a three-decade high of 8 percent at the end of 2009, according to Reis.
“With the strong occupancy we had this year, we were reallyable to push rents,” said Lori Mason Curran, director of real estate investmentstrategy for the property arm of Seattle- based Vulcan Inc., which owns morethan 500 units in the city that are more than 97 percent leased. Some with Solar Carportstechnology.
Hiring by local employers including Amazon.com Inc. andMicrosoft Corp. drove tenant demand, enabling Vulcan to increase leasing fees 6percent to 8 percent in 2011, Mason Curran said. Seattle’s average effectiverent rose 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according toReis.
‘Optimistic’ Landlord
Vulcan was started by Paul Allen, the billionaire co-founder of Microsoft. It is preparing to break ground on almost 500 units inSeattle this quarter, Mason Curran said.
“We’re pretty optimistic about the apartment (BBREAPT)market,” she said in a telephone interview. Seattle’s rents may climb 5 percentto 7 percent this year, according to Mason Curran.
U.S. landlords’ asking rents rose to $ 1,064 from $ 1,043 onaverage a year earlier and $ 1,059 in the previous three months, according tothe Reis report. Effective rents were little changed from the third quarter’s$ 1,004.
“The implicit demand for rental units will remain high aslong as the for-sale housing market remains on the ropes,” Victor Calanog, headof research and economics for Reis, said in the report. Rentals are utilizing Solar Carportsmore and more.
Rent growth may stall starting next year as a wave of newapartment development brings new projects to the market, Calanog said.Multifamily construction is rebounding from a 50-year low reached in 2009,according to U.S. Census Bureau figures.
New Construction
“The sector is benefiting from some of the lowest figuresfor new construction (NHSPSM) on record,” Calanog said. “By 2013, the influx ofnew units may begin eroding any benefit the sector derives from tight supplyconditions.”
A total of 8,865 new units became available in the fourthquarter, the second-fewest for any three-month period in Reis records dating to1999. The first quarter of 2011 had the fewest units, at 7,473. Some of themwith MetalCarports as a part of the rates.
For all of 2011, 37,678 units were completed, the lowestannual total in 31 years of Reis data. The previous record was 49,303 in 1993during the savings and loan crisis.
Landlords saw a net gain in occupied space of 50,559 unitsin the fourth quarter, down from 58,238 units a year earlier and up from 36,818units in the previous three months.
“The fourth quarter tends to be a weaker leasing period,given that most households make moving decisions in the second and thirdquarters, but the apartment sector exceeded expectations once again,” Calanogsaid.
Lowest Vacancies
New Haven, Connecticut, home to Yale University, had thenation’s lowest vacancy rate, followed by New York; Minneapolis; Portland,Oregon; and San Jose, California, according to Reis.
Effective rents rose the most for the year in San Franciscoand San Jose, which have had a resurgence in hiring by technology companies.Chattanooga, Tennessee; Austin, Texas; and New York followed. A lot ofapartments with MetalCarports are available.
“The fact that New York City does not top the list either interms of tightest vacancies or the strongest rent growth reflects how one ofthe largest rental markets in the U.S. has been buffeted by economicheadwinds,” Calanog said. With job cuts by financial firms during the secondhalf and the nation’s highest average effective rent, $ 2,876, “even New Yorklandlords are finding it difficult to raise rents further,” he said.

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McCormick Place in Chicago Tries to Cut Debt Costs

First appeared in Bloomberg
The Chicago-based operator of North America’s biggestexhibition and meeting center borrowed $ 1.12 billion in the week’ssecond-largest municipal bond sale to cut costs and win back its spot as thetop trade-show destination.
The Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority’s McCormickPlace convention center, which has been losing trade shows to Las Vegas andOrlando, Florida, borrowed to reduce expenses by restructuring debt andextending maturities, and to expand a Hyatt hotel. Yesterday’s sale, backed by astate sales tax and local taxes, was the authority’s largest since a $ 1.5billion issue in June 2002. This is where companies would bring their Trade Show Displays.
“By restructuring, we don’t have to draw from the state andcan save it money,” said Richard Oldshue, chief financial officer, in aninterview. “It relieves pressure from the state’s sales-tax revenues.”
McCormick Place generates $ 8 billion in economic activity,including 62,000 jobs and $ 250 million in state and local tax revenue,according to offering documents. Chicago faces a $ 654.7 million deficit in a$ 3.39 billion budget for 2011. The authority also operates Navy Pier, a 50-acreentertainment complex with shops, restaurants, parks and other venues on LakeMichigan that is the state’s top tourist attraction. Many companies needed ChicagoTrade Show Displays.
U.S. state and local governments are poised to borrow $ 13billion this week, the most since the period ended Dec. 11, according to datacompiled by Bloomberg. The borrowing cost on 10-year top-rated municipal bondsfell by 5 basis points yesterday to 2.64 percent, according to data fromMunicipal Market Advisors. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Union Labor
McCormick Place has lost major trade shows in recent yearsbecause of its lease rates and the cost of union labor, said Laurence Geller,chief executive officer of Chicago-based Strategic Hotels & Resorts Inc., areal estate investment trust that owns and manages luxury hotels including theFairmont and InterContinental in Chicago. Companies can Rent Displays which has allowed formore travel.
With legislation passed earlier this year, the state, whichruns McCormick Place with the city, put in new leadership, relaxed rulesrequiring union workers at trade shows and provided additional sales-taxbacking for new bonds to restructure debt to help the center lure moreconventions.
“Without those reforms, Chicago can’t compete directly withLas Vegas and Orlando,” said Thomas Spalding, vice president at NuveenInvestments Inc. in Chicago, where he manages $ 60 billion of municipal bonds.“It’s one of those economic engines of the area.”
By selling bonds the authority is trying to bring its debt-service schedule in line with tax revenue, which has fallen amid the worstrecession since the 1930s, and the loss of conventions to more competitivecities, Standard & Poor’s said in a Sept. 28 report.
Maturities Extended
Maturities on $ 918 million of debt will be extended to anaverage of 37 years from 10 years, Moody’s Investors Service said. About $ 200million will be used to finance a 450-room expansion of a Hyatt Regency hotelnext to McCormick Place.
Declining revenue prompted the authority to turn to thestate for a subsidy to help cover debt payments during the past three years.The authority will repay $ 57.2 million borrowed from the state, according tobond-offering documents.
The bonds are secured by local taxes on hotel stays,restaurant meals and car rentals, along with revenue from the facilities. Thenew bonds will come with an additional state sales-tax pledge, subject toappropriation by lawmakers.
S&P awarded the new issue its top AAA rating, citing thedebt’s state backing. It won AA- from Fitch Ratings, its fourth- highest grade,and A2 from Moody’s Investors Service, the sixth- highest level.
“Based on the environment we’re in, investors look at anissue more like an A2 bond than a AAA bond and that’s why spreads are wider,”said Tom Boylen, managing director and municipal bond trader at BMO CapitalMarkets in Chicago.
The authority cut its borrowing costs by pushing downyields, said Oldshue. The 40-year maturities yielded 4.98 percent to 5.23percent, which is 65 basis points to 90 basis points over the 4.33 rate fortop-rated 40-year bonds.
Following are descriptions of pending sales of municipaldebt in the U.S.:
CITY OF LOS ANGELES wastewater system, which serves morethan 4 million people, will borrow $ 450.7 million next week, including $ 186.7million in taxable Build America Bonds and $ 80 million in taxable Recovery ZoneEconomic Development Bonds. The securities will be used to finance constructionand improvement of the wastewater collection and treatment system and refinanceoutstanding debt. Underwriters led by Siebert Brandford Shank & Co. willmarket the issue to investors, which is rated Aa2 by Moody’s and AA by S&P,both third-highest, one level below the AA+ grade from Fitch. (Added Oct. 7)
CITY OF CHICAGO will issue $ 251 million in Midway Airportrevenue bonds next week. The debt for the second-busiest airport in Illinoisbehind O’Hare International will include $ 88 million in taxable Build AmericaBonds earmarked for construction. Underwriters led by JPMorgan Chase & Co.will market the securities, which carry ratings of A3 from Moody’s and A- fromboth S&P and Fitch, all fourth above non-investment grade. (Added Oct. 7)
UTAH plans to sell $ 201 million in general obligation bondsnext week to refinance outstanding debt. The issue will backed by the fullfaith and credit of the state. The securities, rated highest by Moody’s, Fitchand S&P will be marketed by underwriters led by JPMorgan. (Added Oct. 7)

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Johnson & Johnson Makes Management Changes

First appeared in Bloomberg
Johnson & Johnson, the world’s second biggesthealth-care company, announced its second round of leadership changes in lessthan a year in a unit that’s recalled dozens of brands of consumer medicines. IndianapolisDefective Drug Lawyer professionals are interested in these changes.
Patrick Mutchler, named in April as company group chairmanfor over-the-counter products, will retire, to be replaced by Roberto Marques,the New Brunswick, New Jersey-based drugmaker said in an e-mail today. PericlesStamatiades, chief strategist for the consumer business, is also leaving after28 years at J&J, and his duties will be reassigned, the company said. A CharlestonDefective Drug Lawyer has been watching the changes.
The Mutchler and Stamatiades appointments followed two yearsin which J&J recalled hundreds of millions of packets of Tylenol, Motrin,Benadryl and other products due to foul odors, adulterated ingredients and badlabeling. While the company resumed some sales last year, a shuttered plant inPennsylvania isn’t expected to reopen until next year, Chief Executive OfficerWilliam C. Weldon said on a Jan. 24 call. A SaltLake City Defective Drug Lawyer had calls about the cases.
The over-the-counter business “will continue to be operatedas a separate, integrated business in order to maintain its focus on qualityand compliance, and on the successful reintroduction of OTC medicines in theU.S. market,” Bonnie Jacobs, a spokeswoman for J&J’s McNeil consumer unit,said in an e-mail. Denice Torres will continue to run day-to-day operations forthe U.S. business, she said.
Consumer Dismissals
J&J’s consumer division, which includes McNeil, isdismissing an unspecified number of workers, the company said in a separatee-mailed statement. “These changes will help us better serve consumers’ needsand remain competitive in the face of ongoing global economic challenges,”J&J said.
Jacobs declined to say how many positions were cut. The WallStreet Journal, which first reported the management changes yesterday, saidabout 100 employees were dismissed. A MinneapolisDefective Drug Lawyer is interested.
J&J rose less than one percent to $ 65.91 at 4:04 p.m. inNew York trading. The shares have gained 10.3 percent in the past 12 months.Pfizer Inc., based in New York, is the biggest seller of medical products.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) had $ 4.4 billion inover-the-counter sales last year, a drop of more than 25 percent since 2008,the year before the bulk of the recalls began. Jacobs declined to say why theleadership changes were being made now. Mutchler is leaving after 35 years atJ&J, the company said. A SavannahDefective Drug Lawyer will continue to watch the cases.
“After a career of building successful businesses, it wasPat we turned to when we needed an experienced hand to strengthen McNeil, andagain he has delivered,” said Jesse Wu, the company’s worldwide consumer groupchairman, in a statement. Stamatiades is “a visionary whose legacy willcontinue to deliver growth to our business for years to come,” he said.

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Pep Boys Goes Private

First appeared in Wall Street Journal
Pep Boys—Manny Moe & Jack has agreed to be taken privateby private-equity firm Gores Group in a deal that values the auto-repaircompany at roughly $ 800 million and puts an end to long-running speculationover its future.
Reports early last year suggested the retail auto-parts andservice company was considering putting itself up for sale, although Pep Boysnever commented on the speculation.
Pep Boys shares shot up 24% to $ 14.93 in Monday compositetrading on the New York Stock Exchange, nearing the $ 15-a-share offer fromGores Group. The shares closed Friday at $ 12.08, giving Gores’s offer a 24%premium over the Friday closing price. Pep Boys stock hasn’t traded above theoffer price since late 2007.
Pep Boys’ board unanimously approved the agreement andrecommended that its shareholders follow suit. The Philadelphia-based company,founded more than 90 years ago, said the enterprise value of the deal isroughly $ 1 billion. Gores is putting $ 489 million of equity into the deal.
“Our board firmly believes that this transaction is inthe best interests of all of our stakeholders and delivers an ongoingcommitment to excellence for our customers and employees,” said Pep BoysChief Executive Mike Odell.
Pep Boys’ brand recognition as well as its moderate pricingappealed to Gores, said Lee Bird, managing director of operations and consumerpractice leader at Gores.
The agreement allows for a 45-day “go shop” periodin which Pep Boys can consider other offers. The company also said in light ofthe proposed transaction it won’t host a conference call to discuss financialresults for the 2011 fiscal year but intends to file its year-end results withthe Securities and Exchange Commission.
The auto-parts company began in 1921 with Naval buddies andoriginal Pep Boys Emanuel “Manny” Rosenfeld, Maurice “Moe”Strauss, Moe Radavitz and Graham “Jack” Jackson. Their first storeopened in Philadelphia under the name Pep Auto Supplies, according to the company’swebsite. Its name was changed around 1923 after Strauss noticed during a tripto California that many successful businesses there used first names.
Radavitz and Jackson both left the company early on. WhenPep Boys went public in 1946, Rosenfeld served as its first corporate president.
Pep Boys, which has more than 700 stores, has facedcompetition from companies including AutoZone Inc., Advance Auto Parts Inc. andO’Reilly Automotive Inc.
Last month Pep Boys reported that its fiscal-third-quarternet income rose nearly 23% on stronger tire sales and improving service sales.At the time, Mr. Odell said the improved business was due in part to newmarketing, lower gas prices and pent-up demand.
Auto-parts suppliers have done relatively well during therecession and prolonged economic downturn, as many consumers have held on totheir cars longer and sought out repairs instead of purchasing new cars. Theaverage age of a car or truck in the U.S. hit a record 10.8 years last year asjob security and other economic worries weighed on consumers’ minds.
Gores Group said it has fully committed financing for thebuyout, which is expected to close in the second quarter. Once the acquisitionis complete, Pep Boys stock will no longer trade on the New York StockExchange.

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Floating Bases May Be a Game Changer for US

First appeared in Wall Street Journal
Within the president’s defense-budget plan is funding for anintriguing new item: a floating drone base that also could be used as alaunching pad for commandos.
The vessel—called an “afloat forward stagingbase”—would be a platform that could be configured to carry and refuelsmall patrol boats, helicopters or pilotless aircraft.
It would also give the U.S. military the ability to stage asmall strike force offshore—without obtaining a permission slip from anothercountry for access to a land base.
Details are still emerging, but the project offers insightinto how the Obama administration envisions a military that in some ways ismore lethal even as it contracts.
Plans for the specialized vessel fit neatly with the Obamaadministration’s plans to grow special-operations forces, while slimming downconventional forces such as the Army and Marine Corps.
Senior officials want to provide military commanders with affordablesea-base options without necessarily sending a big-deck aircraft carrier and afull complement of escort ships.
A defense official said the floating staging base was morelike a freighter that would be outfitted for different kinds of missions, fromcountering mines to launching remotely piloted aircraft. It also could be usedas a platform for launching commando operations.
The official said one option for the ship is a version ofthe Mobile Landing Platform, a logistics ship that is being built by GeneralDynamics NASSCO, a San Diego-based shipyard owned by General Dynamics Corp.General Dynamics didn’t respond immediately to requests for comment.
Earlier this week, a Navy SEAL team staged a dramatic rescueof hostages held in Somalia. The military hasn’t disclosed where the SEALslaunched their operation from, but the raid represented the kind of operationthat the administration wants at the center of its counterterrorism strategy:one that requires a minimal involvement of conventional forces.
It isn’t clear what kinds of drones might operate from theship. Special-operations forces in the Middle East have used the Fire Scout, arobotic helicopter, for surveillance operations in the Middle East.
The Navy disclosed last year that two Fire Scouts hadoperated from a guided-missile frigate as part of an international task forcefighting Somali pirates.
The unmanned craft also has operated in Afghanistan, and aFire Scout drone crashed last year during a reconnaissance mission over Libya.
The sea base described in the Pentagon’s budget rollout hassome historical antecedents.
During U.S. military operations to protect Kuwaiti oiltankers from Iranian attacks in the late 1980s, the U.S. repurposed two oilplatform construction barges, the Hercules and the Wimbrown VII, as bases forcountering Tehran in the Persian Gulf.
James Jay Carafano, a national-security expert at theconservative Heritage Foundation, said the floating base “sounds like thesame concept” as the converted barges.
“It’s a small platform that you can use to launch quickoperations from,” he said. “So it’s ideal for littoral operationswhere you want to do special operations or ISR [intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance].”
Mr. Carafano added, however, that this kind of capabilitywas “not a silver bullet,” because such vessels would still have tobe sustained and protected by conventional forces.
“It’s a very limited capability,” he said, adding:”Normally, when we do stuff like this, they wouldn’t want to advertise it.It does seem to be a PR campaign for a smaller, leaner, more flexiblemilitary.”

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Tax Changes for 2012

First appeared in USA Today
As Americans receive their first paychecks of the new year, there are some tax provisions they can count on.
Individual tax rates will be the same for 2012 as they were in 2011, as will the 15% maximum tax rate on capital gains. People at higher incomes won’t see their personal exemptions or deductions phased out. And credits for adopting a child and for college expenses continue.
But several deductions, credits and other provisions that existed for 2011 will no longer be in place.
The alternative minimum tax exemptions will drop to pre-2001 levels if Congress doesn’t pass a patch and make it retroactive to cover the entire year. If history is any guide, however, Congress will do that.
Similarly, without congressional action people over 70½ will no longer be able to make tax-free withdrawals from their IRAs for a charitable contribution, and teachers won’t be able to take a $ 250 deduction for classroom supplies bought with their own money.
“During the course of 2012, the IRS will be keeping a close eye on developments in Congress,” agency spokesman Terry Lemons said. “There are a lot of open question marks.”
The 2012 presidential elections, the partisan discord in Congress and the outcry over the size of the federal deficit all add to the uncertainty. If there’s any doubt, just consider the battle over extending the 2 percentage point cut in Social Security payroll taxes. Agreement could only be reached on a two-month extension despite statements by the White House and both Republicans and Democrats in Congress calling for retaining the reduction for all of 2012. That battle will resume later this year.
Tax experts advise people to monitor other developments as well.
The IRS recommends reviewing your withholding sometime during the year to make sure it is in line with what your tax liability is likely to be. There’s a withholding calculator on its website, http://www.irs.gov/. By having less withheld, people can get their money upfront, rather than waiting for a refund.
For most of us, checking our withholding and preparing tax returns are among the biggest financial tasks we face, Lemons said.
Some of the tax law provisions still in effect for 2012:
• The Bush tax cuts, which set marginal income tax rates of 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33% and 35%. These rates will increase beginning in 2013 unless they are renewed by Congress.
• Capital gains tax rates of 0% and 15%. Capital gains generally are the increase in the value of an asset, such as stock or a home, from time of purchase until sale. Net long-term capital gains — those on assets held more than a year — are taxed at the 0% or 15% rate. Net gains on assets held less than a year — short-term gains — are taxed at the regular income tax rates.
• The child tax credit of $ 1,000 per child. The credit will drop to $ 500 in 2013 unless Congress acts.
• The higher earned income tax credit for families with three or more children. After 2012, families with three or more children will be treated the same as those with two children if Congress doesn’t pass an extension.
• The credit for expenses associated with the adoption of a child. However, the adoption credit is no longer refundable and is limited to $ 12,650 in 2012. It phases out for people with higher incomes.
• The American Opportunity Credit, which allows a maximum credit of $ 2,500 for tuition and other expenses for each of the first four years of higher education. The credit, which also phases out at higher incomes, is partially refundable.
Some of the provisions that expired at the end of 2011:
• A patch for the alternative minimum tax. Absent congressional action, the exemption will drop to $ 45,000 for married couples filing jointly, $ 33,750 for single person or the head of a household, and $ 22,500 for married people filing separately.
• The deduction for state and local sales taxes, in lieu of state and local income taxes.
• The deduction for qualified tuition and fees.

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Southern Plants Find Home in North

First appeared in USA Today
Southern magnolias, lovers of sultry weather, braving thechillier Northeast?
Camellias, a New Orleans trademark, staking out in NorthCarolina and higher latitudes?
It’s true, gardening experts say, and expect similaroddities to represent the new norm.
It is now safe to plant new species in many parts of thenation, according to a new government map released Wednesday showing newgrowing guidelines for the first time in decades. A gradual northward warmingtrend makes it possible to plant trees and other perennials that would haveperished in colder zones. The “hardiness” zones, the gospel to thenation’s 82 million gardeners that are printed on the back of seed packs andcatalogs, are based on average minimum temperatures.
“It is a good thing the government has updated themap,” says Woodrow Nelson, director of marketing communications for theArbor Day Foundation. “Our members have been noticing these climatechanges for years and have been successfully growing new kinds of trees inplaces they wouldn’t grow before.”
For example, Pennsylvania’s growing zone was consideredrisky for southern magnolias, according to the old government map dating to1990. But the new map, based on updated weather statistics from 1996 to 2005, putsPennsylvania, like much of the Northeast, in a warmer growing zone.
Catherine Woteki, an undersecretary of the Department ofAgriculture, which issued the new guidelines, cautioned against reading toomuch into the changes. “We do not think the plant hardiness zonemethodology is appropriate for making comments on climate change,” shesays.
Might gardeners be going out on a limb? Steve Carroll,director of public programs at the State Arboretum in Virginia, advisesgardeners to check with their local nurseries or a university extension programfor advice.
“There’s definitely a changing climate,” saysCharlie Nardozzi, a gardening consultant in northern Vermont. “But thatdoesn’t mean we won’t have a harsh winter again that could kill all theirplants.”

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Romney Reconsiders Private Equity Benefits

First appeared in Wall Street Journal
If elected president, Mitt Romney might consider ending atax break that helped the former Massachusetts governor accumulate his fortune,an aide suggested Tuesday.
The comments came as the Romney campaign made available morethan 500 pages of tax-return data for 2010 and 2011 amid signs the issue was hurtinghim with some voters.
Later in the day, in a signal of how the tax issue isroiling the GOP campaign, the Romney camp tried to step back from the aide’sremarks, underscoring that the former Massachusetts governor didn’t want toraise anyone’s taxes.
The back-and-forth Tuesday about Mr. Romney’s approach toone particular tax break began when the candidate’s policy director, indicatedin a call with reporters the candidate might be willing to reconsider a taxbreak known as “carried interest” as part of a comprehensive taxoverhaul. The break gives private-equity and venture-capital executives a relativelylow 15% tax rate on much of their income. Some reference an UK Tax Advisor.
Carried interest is a share of profits from an investmentfund or partnership given to managers as compensation. Mr. Romney was aided bythe tax advantage as founder of private-equity firm Bain Capital.
The policy director noted Mr. Romney hasn’t recentlyaddressed retention of the carried-interest break. He spoke favorably of it in2008. There are “a number of exemptions, deductions, credits,administrative treatment of income…that would be addressed in tax reform.”
Most taxpayers receive compensation as ordinary wagessubject to rates as high as 35%. Roughly half of households pay no federalincome tax. The average income-tax rate for the middle slice ofhouseholds—those making between $ 34,300 and $ 50,000—was 3.3% for 2007. Theaverage income-tax rate was 14.4% for the top fifth, and 19% for the top 1%,before dropping slightly for the very highest earners who, like Mr. Romney,typically receive a large percentage of income from investments.
Democrats have criticized carried-interest rules, thoughthey have failed when they have tried to repeal them.
Tuesday, Mr. Romney’s campaign formally released detailedinformation on the candidate’s 2010 tax return and a summary of his 2011 taxes,which aren’t finished yet.
Tax experts said that by and large, the returns showed Mr.Romney and his advisers sought to minimize the family’s tax burden, whilegenerally avoiding aggressive positions.
The Romneys reported an effective tax rate of about 14% ontheir 2010 return, and just over 15% in their tentative calculations for 2011,on income that hovered around $ 20 million each year. They received about $ 7.4million in income taxed under carried-interest rules in 2010 and $ 5.5 millionin 2011, aides said.
An accountant with Crowe Horwath in New York, said,”This is the tax return of a man who knows he is running for politicaloffice and who has distanced himself from investment decisions. Most of thedisclosures in these tax returns are fairly typical of investors with a globalinvestment perspective.”
The tax data revealed new details about Mr. Romney’s wealthmanagement, including his ownership of a now-closed Swiss bank account as wellas investments in the Cayman Islands, Bermuda and other tax havens.
The Romney camp said the candidate properly reported incomefrom those sources, paid appropriate taxes and in the case of the Swiss account,disclosed it to the IRS.
The 2010 tax return suggests the Romneys maintained arelationship with Bain Capital more than a decade after Mr. Romney left in1999. According to documents, the Ann D. Romney Blind Trust received twoinvestments subject to carried-interest rules in Bain funds in fall 2010.
The Romneys’ trustee, signed two statements stating that”services” would be performed to maintain the investments, withoutstating who would offer such services. Such a statement ensures the earningswill qualify for capital-gains treatment, accountants say.
In a written statement, the campaign said The  Romneys’ trustee’s wording was”boilerplate language” and that no services were provided inconnection with receipt of the interests. The campaign declined furthercomment.
A prominent accountant in Atlanta, and other experts saidsuch services are required in order for the income to qualify for favorable taxtreatment.  An UK Tax Planning advocate has to dosimilar things.
The tax filings also provide details on a trust set up in1995 for the Romneys’ five sons, which appears to hold a hefty percentage ofthe family’s wealth, estimated at more than $ 260 million. Such trusts generallyare established to minimize future estate taxes.
In the 2010 tax filings released Tuesday, the Romneysreported the family trust had $ 7.7 million in capital gains in 2010, about 46%of the total capital gains reported that year, not counting a tax loss from aprior year. Capital gains were the Romneys’ largest source of income. Much ofthe trust’s income came from entities affiliated with Bain Capital, the taxfilings show.

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How the US Missed Out on the iPhone

 First appeared in NY Times
When Barack Obama joined Silicon Valley’s top luminaries for dinner in California last February, each guest was asked to come with a question for the president.
But as Steven P. Jobs of Apple spoke, President Obama interrupted with an inquiry of his own: what would it take to make iPhones in the United States?
Not long ago, Apple boasted that its products were made in America. Today, few are. Almost all of the 70 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 59 million other products Apple sold last year were manufactured overseas.
Why can’t that work come home? Mr. Obama asked.
Mr. Jobs’s reply was unambiguous. “Those jobs aren’t coming back,” he said, according to another dinner guest.
The president’s question touched upon a central conviction at Apple. It isn’t just that workers are cheaper abroad. Rather, Apple’s executives believe the vast scale of overseas factories as well as the flexibility, diligence and industrial skills of foreign workers have so outpaced their American counterparts that “Made in the U.S.A.” is no longer a viable option for most Apple products.
Apple has become one of the best-known, most admired and most imitated companies on earth, in part through an unrelenting mastery of global operations. Last year, it earned over $ 400,000 in profit per employee, more than Goldman Sachs, Exxon Mobil or Google.
However, what has vexed Mr. Obama as well as economists and policy makers is that Apple — and many of its high-technology peers — are not nearly as avid in creating American jobs as other famous companies were in their heydays.
Apple employs 43,000 people in the United States and 20,000 overseas, a small fraction of the over 400,000 American workers at General Motors in the 1950s, or the hundreds of thousands at General Electric in the 1980s. Many more people work for Apple’s contractors: an additional 700,000 people engineer, build and assemble iPads, iPhones and Apple’s other products. But almost none of them work in the United States. Instead, they work for foreign companies in Asia, Europe and elsewhere, at factories that almost all electronics designers rely upon to build their wares.
“Apple’s an example of why it’s so hard to create middle-class jobs in the U.S. now,” said Jared Bernstein, who until last year was an economic adviser to the White House.
“If it’s the pinnacle of capitalism, we should be worried.”
Apple executives say that going overseas, at this point, is their only option. One former executive described how the company relied upon a Chinese factory to revamp iPhone manufacturing just weeks before the device was due on shelves. Apple had redesigned the iPhone’s screen at the last minute, forcing an assembly line overhaul. New screens began arriving at the plant near midnight.
A foreman immediately roused 8,000 workers inside the company’s dormitories, according to the executive. Each employee was given a biscuit and a cup of tea, guided to a workstation and within half an hour started a 12-hour shift fitting glass screens into beveled frames. Within 96 hours, the plant was producing over 10,000 iPhones a day.
“The speed and flexibility is breathtaking,” the executive said. “There’s no American plant that can match that.”
Similar stories could be told about almost any electronics company — and outsourcing has also become common in hundreds of industries, including accounting, legal services, banking, auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals.
But while Apple is far from alone, it offers a window into why the success of some prominent companies has not translated into large numbers of domestic jobs. What’s more, the company’s decisions pose broader questions about what corporate America owes Americans as the global and national economies are increasingly intertwined.
“Companies once felt an obligation to support American workers, even when it wasn’t the best financial choice,” said Betsey Stevenson, the chief economist at the Labor Department until last September. “That’s disappeared. Profits and efficiency have trumped generosity.”
Companies and other economists say that notion is naïve. Though Americans are among the most educated workers in the world, the nation has stopped training enough people in the mid-level skills that factories need, executives say.
To thrive, companies argue they need to move work where it can generate enough profits to keep paying for innovation. Doing otherwise risks losing even more American jobs over time, as evidenced by the legions of once-proud domestic manufacturers — including G.M. and others — that have shrunk as nimble competitors have emerged.
Apple was provided with extensive summaries of The New York Times’s reporting for this article, but the company, which has a reputation for secrecy, declined to comment.
This article is based on interviews with more than three dozen current and former Apple employees and contractors — many of whom requested anonymity to protect their jobs — as well as economists, manufacturing experts, international trade specialists, technology analysts, academic researchers, employees at Apple’s suppliers, competitors and corporate partners, and government officials.
Privately, Apple executives say the world is now such a changed place that it is a mistake to measure a company’s contribution simply by tallying its employees — though they note that Apple employs more workers in the United States than ever before.
They say Apple’s success has benefited the economy by empowering entrepreneurs and creating jobs at companies like cellular providers and businesses shipping Apple products. And, ultimately, they say curing unemployment is not their job.
“We sell iPhones in over a hundred countries,” a current Apple executive said. “We don’t have an obligation to solve America’s problems. Our only obligation is making the best product possible.”
‘I Want a Glass Screen’
In 2007, a little over a month before the iPhone was scheduled to appear in stores, Mr. Jobs beckoned a handful of lieutenants into an office. For weeks, he had been carrying a prototype of the device in his pocket.
Mr. Jobs angrily held up his iPhone, angling it so everyone could see the dozens of tiny scratches marring its plastic screen, according to someone who attended the meeting. He then pulled his keys from his jeans.
People will carry this phone in their pocket, he said. People also carry their keys in their pocket. “I won’t sell a product that gets scratched,” he said tensely. The only solution was using unscratchable glass instead. “I want a glass screen, and I want it perfect in six weeks.”
After one executive left that meeting, he booked a flight to Shenzhen, China. If Mr. Jobs wanted perfect, there was nowhere else to go.
For over two years, the company had been working on a project — code-named Purple 2 — that presented the same questions at every turn: how do you completely reimagine the cellphone? And how do you design it at the highest quality — with an unscratchable screen, for instance — while also ensuring that millions can be manufactured quickly and inexpensively enough to earn a significant profit?
The answers, almost every time, were found outside the United States. Though components differ between versions, all iPhones contain hundreds of parts, an estimated 90 percent of which are manufactured abroad. Advanced semiconductors have come from Germany and Taiwan, memory from Korea and Japan, display panels and circuitry from Korea and Taiwan, chipsets from Europe and rare metals from Africa and Asia. And all of it is put together in China.
In its early days, Apple usually didn’t look beyond its own backyard for manufacturing solutions. A few years after Apple began building the Macintosh in 1983, for instance, Mr. Jobs bragged that it was “a machine that is made in America.” In 1990, while Mr. Jobs was running NeXT, which was eventually bought by Apple, the executive told a reporter that “I’m as proud of the factory as I am of the computer.” As late as 2002, top Apple executives occasionally drove two hours northeast of their headquarters to visit the company’s iMac plant in Elk Grove, Calif.
But by 2004, Apple had largely turned to foreign manufacturing. Guiding that decision was Apple’s operations expert, Timothy D. Cook, who replaced Mr. Jobs as chief executive last August, six weeks before Mr. Jobs’s death. Most other American electronics companies had already gone abroad, and Apple, which at the time was struggling, felt it had to grasp every advantage.
In part, Asia was attractive because the semiskilled workers there were cheaper. But that wasn’t driving Apple. For technology companies, the cost of labor is minimal compared with the expense of buying parts and managing supply chains that bring together components and services from hundreds of companies.
For Mr. Cook, the focus on Asia “came down to two things,” said one former high-ranking Apple executive. Factories in Asia “can scale up and down faster” and “Asian supply chains have surpassed what’s in the U.S.” The result is that “we can’t compete at this point,” the executive said.
The impact of such advantages became obvious as soon as Mr. Jobs demanded glass screens in 2007.
For years, cellphone makers had avoided using glass because it required precision in cutting and grinding that was extremely difficult to achieve. Apple had already selected an American company, Corning Inc., to manufacture large panes of strengthened glass. But figuring out how to cut those panes into millions of iPhone screens required finding an empty cutting plant, hundreds of pieces of glass to use in experiments and an army of midlevel engineers. It would cost a fortune simply to prepare.
Then a bid for the work arrived from a Chinese factory.
When an Apple team visited, the Chinese plant’s owners were already constructing a new wing. “This is in case you give us the contract,” the manager said, according to a former Apple executive. The Chinese government had agreed to underwrite costs for numerous industries, and those subsidies had trickled down to the glass-cutting factory. It had a warehouse filled with glass samples available to Apple, free of charge. The owners made engineers available at almost no cost. They had built on-site dormitories so employees would be available 24 hours a day.
The Chinese plant got the job.
“The entire supply chain is in China now,” said another former high-ranking Apple executive. “You need a thousand rubber gaskets? That’s the factory next door. You need a million screws? That factory is a block away. You need that screw made a little bit different? It will take three hours.”
In Foxconn City
An eight-hour drive from that glass factory is a complex, known informally as Foxconn City, where the iPhone is assembled. To Apple executives, Foxconn City was further evidence that China could deliver workers — and diligence — that outpaced their American counterparts.
That’s because nothing like Foxconn City exists in the United States.
The facility has 230,000 employees, many working six days a week, often spending up to 12 hours a day at the plant. Over a quarter of Foxconn’s work force lives in company barracks and many workers earn less than $ 17 a day. When one Apple executive arrived during a shift change, his car was stuck in a river of employees streaming past. “The scale is unimaginable,” he said.
Foxconn employs nearly 300 guards to direct foot traffic so workers are not crushed in doorway bottlenecks. The facility’s central kitchen cooks an average of three tons of pork and 13 tons of rice a day. While factories are spotless, the air inside nearby teahouses is hazy with the smoke and stench of cigarettes.
Foxconn Technology has dozens of facilities in Asia and Eastern Europe, and in Mexico and Brazil, and it assembles an estimated 40 percent of the world’s consumer electronics for customers like Amazon, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Motorola, Nintendo, Nokia, Samsung and Sony.
“They could hire 3,000 people overnight,” said Jennifer Rigoni, who was Apple’s worldwide supply demand manager until 2010, but declined to discuss specifics of her work. “What U.S. plant can find 3,000 people overnight and convince them to live in dorms?”
In mid-2007, after a month of experimentation, Apple’s engineers finally perfected a method for cutting strengthened glass so it could be used in the iPhone’s screen. The first truckloads of cut glass arrived at Foxconn City in the dead of night, according to the former Apple executive. That’s when managers woke thousands of workers, who crawled into their uniforms — white and black shirts for men, red for women — and quickly lined up to assemble, by hand, the phones. Within three months, Apple had sold one million iPhones. Since then, Foxconn has assembled over 200 million more.
Foxconn, in statements, declined to speak about specific clients.
“Any worker recruited by our firm is covered by a clear contract outlining terms and conditions and by Chinese government law that protects their rights,” the company wrote. Foxconn “takes our responsibility to our employees very seriously and we work hard to give our more than one million employees a safe and positive environment.”
The company disputed some details of the former Apple executive’s account, and wrote that a midnight shift, such as the one described, was impossible “because we have strict regulations regarding the working hours of our employees based on their designated shifts, and every employee has computerized timecards that would bar them from working at any facility at a time outside of their approved shift.” The company said that all shifts began at either 7 a.m. or 7 p.m., and that employees receive at least 12 hours’ notice of any schedule changes.
Foxconn employees, in interviews, have challenged those assertions.
Another critical advantage for Apple was that China provided engineers at a scale the United States could not match. Apple’s executives had estimated that about 8,700 industrial engineers were needed to oversee and guide the 200,000 assembly-line workers eventually involved in manufacturing iPhones. The company’s analysts had forecast it would take as long as nine months to find that many qualified engineers in the United States.
In China, it took 15 days.
Companies like Apple “say the challenge in setting up U.S. plants is finding a technical work force,” said Martin Schmidt, associate provost at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In particular, companies say they need engineers with more than high school, but not necessarily a bachelor’s degree. Americans at that skill level are hard to find, executives contend. “They’re good jobs, but the country doesn’t have enough to feed the demand,” Mr. Schmidt said.
Some aspects of the iPhone are uniquely American. The device’s software, for instance, and its innovative marketing campaigns were largely created in the United States. Apple recently built a $ 500 million data center in North Carolina. Crucial semiconductors inside the iPhone 4 and 4S are manufactured in an Austin, Tex., factory by Samsung, of South Korea.
But even those facilities are not enormous sources of jobs. Apple’s North Carolina center, for instance, has only 100 full-time employees. The Samsung plant has an estimated 2,400 workers.
“If you scale up from selling one million phones to 30 million phones, you don’t really need more programmers,” said Jean-Louis Gassée, who oversaw product development and marketing for Apple until he left in 1990. “All these new companies — Facebook, Google, Twitter — benefit from this. They grow, but they don’t really need to hire much.”
It is hard to estimate how much more it would cost to build iPhones in the United States. However, various academics and manufacturing analysts estimate that because labor is such a small part of technology manufacturing, paying American wages would add up to $ 65 to each iPhone’s expense. Since Apple’s profits are often hundreds of dollars per phone, building domestically, in theory, would still give the company a healthy reward.
But such calculations are, in many respects, meaningless because building the iPhone in the United States would demand much more than hiring Americans — it would require transforming the national and global economies. Apple executives believe there simply aren’t enough American workers with the skills the company needs or factories with sufficient speed and flexibility. Other companies that work with Apple, like Corning, also say they must go abroad.
Manufacturing glass for the iPhone revived a Corning factory in Kentucky, and today, much of the glass in iPhones is still made there. After the iPhone became a success, Corning received a flood of orders from other companies hoping to imitate Apple’s designs. Its strengthened glass sales have grown to more than $ 700 million a year, and it has hired or continued employing about 1,000 Americans to support the emerging market.
But as that market has expanded, the bulk of Corning’s strengthened glass manufacturing has occurred at plants in Japan and Taiwan.
“Our customers are in Taiwan, Korea, Japan and China,” said James B. Flaws, Corning’s vice chairman and chief financial officer. “We could make the glass here, and then ship it by boat, but that takes 35 days. Or, we could ship it by air, but that’s 10 times as expensive. So we build our glass factories next door to assembly factories, and those are overseas.”
Corning was founded in America 161 years ago and its headquarters are still in upstate New York. Theoretically, the company could manufacture all its glass domestically. But it would “require a total overhaul in how the industry is structured,” Mr. Flaws said. “The consumer electronics business has become an Asian business. As an American, I worry about that, but there’s nothing I can do to stop it. Asia has become what the U.S. was for the last 40 years.”
Middle-Class Jobs Fade
The first time Eric Saragoza stepped into Apple’s manufacturing plant in Elk Grove, Calif., he felt as if he were entering an engineering wonderland.
It was 1995, and the facility near Sacramento employed more than 1,500 workers. It was a kaleidoscope of robotic arms, conveyor belts ferrying circuit boards and, eventually, candy-colored iMacs in various stages of assembly. Mr. Saragoza, an engineer, quickly moved up the plant’s ranks and joined an elite diagnostic team. His salary climbed to $ 50,000. He and his wife had three children. They bought a home with a pool.
“It felt like, finally, school was paying off,” he said. “I knew the world needed people who can build things.”
At the same time, however, the electronics industry was changing, and Apple — with products that were declining in popularity — was struggling to remake itself. One focus was improving manufacturing. A few years after Mr. Saragoza started his job, his bosses explained how the California plant stacked up against overseas factories: the cost, excluding the materials, of building a $ 1,500 computer in Elk Grove was $ 22 a machine. In Singapore, it was $ 6. In Taiwan, $ 4.85. Wages weren’t the major reason for the disparities. Rather it was costs like inventory and how long it took workers to finish a task.
“We were told we would have to do 12-hour days, and come in on Saturdays,” Mr. Saragoza said. “I had a family. I wanted to see my kids play soccer.”
Modernization has always caused some kinds of jobs to change or disappear. As the American economy transitioned from agriculture to manufacturing and then to other industries, farmers became steelworkers, and then salesmen and middle managers. These shifts have carried many economic benefits, and in general, with each progression, even unskilled workers received better wages and greater chances at upward mobility.
But in the last two decades, something more fundamental has changed, economists say. Midwage jobs started disappearing. Particularly among Americans without college degrees, today’s new jobs are disproportionately in service occupations — at restaurants or call centers, or as hospital attendants or temporary workers — that offer fewer opportunities for reaching the middle class.
Even Mr. Saragoza, with his college degree, was vulnerable to these trends. First, some of Elk Grove’s routine tasks were sent overseas. Mr. Saragoza didn’t mind. Then the robotics that made Apple a futuristic playground allowed executives to replace workers with machines. Some diagnostic engineering went to Singapore. Middle managers who oversaw the plant’s inventory were laid off because, suddenly, a few people with Internet connections were all that were needed.
Mr. Saragoza was too expensive for an unskilled position. He was also insufficiently credentialed for upper management. He was called into a small office in 2002 after a night shift, laid off and then escorted from the plant. He taught high school for a while, and then tried a return to technology. But Apple, which had helped anoint the region as “Silicon Valley North,” had by then converted much of the Elk Grove plant into an AppleCare call center, where new employees often earn $ 12 an hour.
There were employment prospects in Silicon Valley, but none of them panned out. “What they really want are 30-year-olds without children,” said Mr. Saragoza, who today is 48, and whose family now includes five of his own.
After a few months of looking for work, he started feeling desperate. Even teaching jobs had dried up. So he took a position with an electronics temp agency that had been hired by Apple to check returned iPhones and iPads before they were sent back to customers. Every day, Mr. Saragoza would drive to the building where he had once worked as an engineer, and for $ 10 an hour with no benefits, wipe thousands of glass screens and test audio ports by plugging in headphones.
Paydays for Apple
As Apple’s overseas operations and sales have expanded, its top employees have thrived. Last fiscal year, Apple’s revenue topped $ 108 billion, a sum larger than the combined state budgets of Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Since 2005, when the company’s stock split, share prices have risen from about $ 45 to more than $ 427.
Some of that wealth has gone to shareholders. Apple is among the most widely held stocks, and the rising share price has benefited millions of individual investors, 401(k)’s and pension plans. The bounty has also enriched Apple workers. Last fiscal year, in addition to their salaries, Apple’s employees and directors received stock worth $ 2 billion and exercised or vested stock and options worth an added $ 1.4 billion.
The biggest rewards, however, have often gone to Apple’s top employees. Mr. Cook, Apple’s chief, last year received stock grants — which vest over a 10-year period — that, at today’s share price, would be worth $ 427 million, and his salary was raised to $ 1.4 million. In 2010, Mr. Cook’s compensation package was valued at $ 59 million, according to Apple’s security filings.
A person close to Apple argued that the compensation received by Apple’s employees was fair, in part because the company had brought so much value to the nation and world. As the company has grown, it has expanded its domestic work force, including manufacturing jobs. Last year, Apple’s American work force grew by 8,000 people.
While other companies have sent call centers abroad, Apple has kept its centers in the United States. One source estimated that sales of Apple’s products have caused other companies to hire tens of thousands of Americans. FedEx and United Parcel Service, for instance, both say they have created American jobs because of the volume of Apple’s shipments, though neither would provide specific figures without permission from Apple, which the company declined to provide.
“We shouldn’t be criticized for using Chinese workers,” a current Apple executive said. “The U.S. has stopped producing people with the skills we need.”
What’s more, Apple sources say the company has created plenty of good American jobs inside its retail stores and among entrepreneurs selling iPhone and iPad applications.
After two months of testing iPads, Mr. Saragoza quit. The pay was so low that he was better off, he figured, spending those hours applying for other jobs. On a recent October evening, while Mr. Saragoza sat at his MacBook and submitted another round of résumés online, halfway around the world a woman arrived at her office. The worker, Lina Lin, is a project manager in Shenzhen, China, at PCH International, which contracts with Apple and other electronics companies to coordinate production of accessories, like the cases that protect the iPad’s glass screens. She is not an Apple employee. But Mrs. Lin is integral to Apple’s ability to deliver its products.
Mrs. Lin earns a bit less than what Mr. Saragoza was paid by Apple. She speaks fluent English, learned from watching television and in a Chinese university. She and her husband put a quarter of their salaries in the bank every month. They live in a 1,080-square-foot apartment, which they share with their in-laws and son.
“There are lots of jobs,” Mrs. Lin said. “Especially in Shenzhen.”
Innovation’s Losers
Toward the end of Mr. Obama’s dinner last year with Mr. Jobs and other Silicon Valley executives, as everyone stood to leave, a crowd of photo seekers formed around the president. A slightly smaller scrum gathered around Mr. Jobs. Rumors had spread that his illness had worsened, and some hoped for a photograph with him, perhaps for the last time.
Eventually, the orbits of the men overlapped. “I’m not worried about the country’s long-term future,” Mr. Jobs told Mr. Obama, according to one observer. “This country is insanely great. What I’m worried about is that we don’t talk enough about solutions.”
At dinner, for instance, the executives had suggested that the government should reform visa programs to help companies hire foreign engineers. Some had urged the president to give companies a “tax holiday” so they could bring back overseas profits which, they argued, would be used to create work. Mr. Jobs even suggested it might be possible, someday, to locate some of Apple’s skilled manufacturing in the United States if the government helped train more American engineers.
Economists debate the usefulness of those and other efforts, and note that a struggling economy is sometimes transformed by unexpected developments. The last time analysts wrung their hands about prolonged American unemployment, for instance, in the early 1980s, the Internet hardly existed. Few at the time would have guessed that a degree in graphic design was rapidly becoming a smart bet, while studying telephone repair a dead end.
What remains unknown, however, is whether the United States will be able to leverage tomorrow’s innovations into millions of jobs.
In the last decade, technological leaps in solar and wind energy, semiconductor fabrication and display technologies have created thousands of jobs. But while many of those industries started in America, much of the employment has occurred abroad. Companies have closed major facilities in the United States to reopen in China. By way of explanation, executives say they are competing with Apple for shareholders. If they cannot rival Apple’s growth and profit margins, they won’t survive.
“New middle-class jobs will eventually emerge,” said Lawrence Katz, a Harvard economist. “But will someone in his 40s have the skills for them? Or will he be bypassed for a new graduate and never find his way back into the middle class?”
The pace of innovation, say executives from a variety of industries, has been quickened by businessmen like Mr. Jobs. G.M. went as long as half a decade between major automobile redesigns. Apple, by comparison, has released five iPhones in four years, doubling the devices’ speed and memory while dropping the price that some consumers pay.
Before Mr. Obama and Mr. Jobs said goodbye, the Apple executive pulled an iPhone from his pocket to show off a new application — a driving game — with incredibly detailed graphics. The device reflected the soft glow of the room’s lights. The other executives, whose combined worth exceeded $ 69 billion, jostled for position to glance over his shoulder. The game, everyone agreed, was wonderful.
There wasn’t even a tiny scratch on the screen.

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Less U.S. Children Are Born

First appeared in the Wall Street Journal
The U.S. under-18 population fell between 2010 and 2011, the first time in at least two decades that the country has seen its minor population decline, according to demographers and new Census data.
The U.S. under-18 population was 73,934,272 in July 2011, a decline of 247,000 or 0.3% from July of 2010, according to an analysis of Census data by a demographer at The Brookings Institution. The child population is still up 2.3% from 2000, largely because of gains made in the early-decade boom years.
The child population is falling because fewer immigrant children are coming across U.S. borders, and because fewer children are being born. Meantime, the so-called millennial generation is moving into adulthood. With fertility rates down, The Brookings Institution says “it doesn’t look like a youth boom will reverberate anytime soon.”
The U.S. minor population fell in the 1970s as well, as baby boomers moved into adulthood and women entered the labor force en masse, delaying families in the process. A large drop in fertility was also behind a decline in minors between 1920 and 1930.
States with the biggest drop in children tended to be concentrated in the aging Rust Belt and New England. Every New England state saw its under 18 population fall 1% or greater from April 2010 to July 2011 (state Estimates are over a different time period than the national tally). Michigan and Pennsylvania were also big losers. Also, while the drops were small, states including Arizona and Nevada saw their minor populations fall after huge gains earlier in the decade.

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